The rise of LED technology is affecting every part of the commercial lighting industry. Falling prices and improving quality are driving widespread adoption of LEDs, and this single technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency. According to a report, worldwide unit shipments of LED lamps will grow from 68 million in 2013 to 1.28 billion annually by 2021.

"LED lighting has already begun to enter the commercial market in significant volume, and will grow rapidly over the remainder of the decade," says Jesse Foote, research analyst. “Specific applications, such as cold storage, have already seen widespread LED adoption, while spaces that are currently lit by efficient linear fluorescent lamps await further LED price declines. The industry has entered a period of rapid upheaval, as established and startup companies scramble to position themselves to benefit from the rise of LED lighting.”

Although shipments of LED products will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.3 percent through 2021, According to the report, they will not be sufficient to compensate for the overall decline in commercial lighting revenue as the industry moves toward much more long-lasting lamps. Lamp and luminaire revenue will both grow for the next few years before beginning an inexorable decline in 2017.