Strategies Unlimited predicts that the LED industry is emerging from a slow growth phase, and that the total market size in 2012 will exceed $11bn.

According to a market update presented by Bob Steele at the 2008 Strategies in Light conference in Santa Clara, California, the market for packaged high-brightness LEDs is set to grow by 12% in 2008.

Steele said that the market grew by 9.5% in 2007 to reach $4.6 billion, somewhat higher than the 6% growth in 2005 and 2006.

In the next five years, further acceleration in growth is expected as applications outside the mobile phone market come to the fore. Steele predicts a CAGR of 20% in the next five years, with a total market of $11.4 billion in 2012.

Steele predicted that the largest application in 2012, with 44% of the market, will be Signs & Displays, which includes backlighting for large LCD screens (monitors and TVs). For 2007, the largest segment was Mobile Appliances, with 44% market share. However, the largest growth was seen in the Illumination and Signs & Displays markets.

Solid-state illumination accounted for 7% of the market, or $320 million, in 2007, and this figure is expected to grow to nearly $1.37 billion by 2012. Steele said that energy-efficiency is a major driver for moving LEDs into the general (white) lighting market, but products must deliver value on a cost-of-ownership basis, and must have proven LED fixture efficiency and lifetime to win customer acceptance.