By Lowy Chang

The LED industry outlook is fast-changing, currently facing oversupply after its growth surge over the recent years. LEDforum 2011 Taipei, organized by TrendForce’s research division, LEDinside, on November 1 and 2, 2011 at the NTUH International Convention Center. This year the inventors of GaN LED and yellow LED, LEDinside analysts as well as international and Taiwanese LED key industry leaders are invited to analyze the global LED industry.

Several international industry leaders shared their perspectives on the manufacturing technologies and equipment as well as the LED market dynamics from a professional perspective. Moreover, the LEDinside’s analysts provide insights on the development of the global LED industry, with focus on the Chinese and European LED lighting markets, and they also analyzed the 2012 global LED industry price trends.

Day One of LEDforum: LED Industry’s Technology Innovations
Given that the LED industry has always been highly technology-driven, sessions on the first day focused on LED manufacturing technologies, components and innovative applications. C. L. Liu, Sc.D., gave the opening speech, followed by the keynote speech given by Shuji Nakamura Ph.D., (the inventor of the first high brightness GaN LED).

Shuji Nakamura Ph.D., (Inventor of the First High Brightness GaN LED): GaN-Based Nonpolar/Semipolar Emitting Devices
Shuji Nakamura Ph.D., professor of University of California, Santa Barbara, illustrated the solid-state light market’s trends and development at LEDforum 2011 Shanghai, which garnered great response from the attendees. At LEDforum 2011 Taipei, Nakamura provided in-depth analysis on GaN-Based Nonpolar/Semipolar Emitting Devices, covering the issues of efficacy droop, semipolar LEDs and GaN growth.

Dr. Nakamura presented the approaches that can help stop LED industry’s recession through charts and statistics, and he also introduced the structures of GaN sapphire and bulk GaN. Moreover, he compared the difference between green LED and turquoise LED and introduced a new type of LED (20-2-1).

Dr. Nakamura pointed out that since 2001, the invention of nonpolar and semipolar GaNs offered LEDs and LDs higher efficiency. The short efficacy droop of the (20-2-1) LED will help the development of blue and green LDs. Compared with other semipolar LED’s uneven efficiencies, the new LED still requires further research.

Aixtron: Productivity and Performance Factors in Compound Semiconductor Production by MOCVD
Manufacturing equipment takes up the largest portion of LED manufacturing cost. Christian Geng, Ph.D., the Vice President Greater China of German equipment maker Aixtron, analyzed the factors that affect the quality, capacity and efficiency of coupled semiconductor’s mass production by MOCVD.

Based on the trends of the LED industry from 2010 to 2015, Dr. Geng pointed out that lighting will undoubtedly become the most promising market in the long term. He illustrated the factors that affect the manufacture of coupled semiconductor through charts and statistics. He stated that in addition to production area, automation, supplier service and employee training, production reactor and chip size also closely influence the manufacturing cost. In addition, Geng introduced Aixtron’s several different models of MOCVD equipment.

Veeco: Maintaining Quality and Cost-Down in the Highly Competitive LED Industry
Jia Lee, the Director of Marketing of Veeco Instruments, addressed “Maintaining Quality and Cost-Down in the Highly Competitive LED Industry.” Dr. Lee expected the penetration rate of LED TV to reach 50% in 2011 and to advance to 80% in 2013. He also predicted that the increasing rate of LED chips will reach 68% in the next five years. In addition, with the fast growth of the LED industry, he provided relevant data to demonstrate how the advancement of MOCVD equipment is able to aid manufacturers in reducing costs, provide a system for designing high-brightness LEDs, increase capacity and decrease carbon emission.

In May, 2011, Veeco inaugurated its new Customer Support & Training Center in Shanghai which was about 1700 square meters in size and accommodates approximately 40 Veeco employees. The center is equipped with three classrooms as well as Veeco’s market leading Veeco TurboDisc® K465i™ MOCVD system.

Epistar: The Technology Break-through of LED Components for Lighting Fixtures
Carson Hsieh, Ph.D., the Vice-President of R&D of Epistar, analyzed LED component technologies and the outlook of LED light bulb market. Hsieh saw wide adoption of LED light bulbs in the next few years, with the penetration rate expected to reach 40% in 2015 and to advance to roughly 75% by 2018. At present, there are all kinds of light bulbs in the market, but the prices do not exactly make economic sense. For example, 40W light bulb’s price is US$ 20, while the price of 60W light bulb is US$ 40.

By comparing the LED light bulbs of Philips, Sharp, and Toshiba and taking into account of the users’ needs and LED light bulbs’ structures, Hsieh pointed out that an ideal light bulb needs to be highly efficient, cheap and user-friendly. In addition, he shared the latest development of LED components via statistics and diagrams, including the best solution of warm white light LED.

GT Advanced Technologies: Defining the Sapphire Metrics that Matter: A Data-Driven Approach
Cheryl Diuguid, the Vice President and General Manager, Sapphire Equipment and Material Business of GT Advanced Technologies, introduced GT Advanced Technologies’ strengths in manufacturing sapphire and the key metrics of sapphire. Ms. Diuguid pointed out that assorted sapphires produced through different technologies have respective traits: GT Advanced Technologies’ ASF material can help package makers achieve high efficiency. GT Advanced Technologies provides the market with high-brightness sapphires and conducts researches on materials’ colors and traits. The research results show that all the sapphire materials are colored. GT’s materials have purer blue light quality.

Merck Display Technology: LED Phosphors for Backlighting and General Lighting Applications
Holger Winkler, Ph.D., Head of R&D Solid State Lighting of Merck Display Technology, addressed “LED Phosphors for Backlighting and General Lighting Applications”and the current prospects and challenges facing LED phosphors. Dr. Winkler introduced the new BOSE phosphor material with enhanced stability, and illustrated the path to a higher efficiency. He pointed out that BOSE phosphor material has flexible chromatograph (from green to orange). He also proved that BOSE material can enhance LED’s stability and make it compatible in high-temperature and severe environment through the stability test of green and yellow BOSE phosphor material.  Moreover, the flexibility and other performances of mixed phosphor materials are better than those of singular materials: in terms of BLU applications, mixed materials have a wider range of colors; in terms of regular lighting applications, they give CCT more flexibility.

KLA–Tencor: Process Control and Yield Management in HBLED Manufacturing
Product Marketing Manager for KLA-Tencor, Mr. Eric Yang presented a comprehensive overview of current trends in the LED industry, and share his insights on the HBLED production process and yield rate management strategies. Yang indicated that the largest increases in LED demand will come from lighting and television applications. Looking at supply chain trends, production may peak in 2013, while power consumption trends will stimulate a mold size increase. Furthermore, Yang believed that testing frequency should be increased in order to increase investment returns. He shared strategies on the high-quality HBLED production process and yield-rate management.

ULVAC: Development of LED Manufacturing Equipment Solutions
Dr. Koukou Suu, General Manager of Japan’s ULVAC Institute of Semiconductor & Electronics Technologies will discuss the development of LED manufacturing equipment solutions.Looking at global energy data, Suu indicated that as worldwide power consumption and carbon emission levels both increased in 2010, spreading awareness about the importance of energy conservation and the need for new, safe energy sources is of the utmost importance. As a company devoted to alternative energy solutions and related equipment, ULVAC is also focused on LED and OLED equipment.  Suu indicated that LED chips will continue to develop in the direction of high performance, low cost, while LED equipment will progress towards high performance, high cost. Finally, Suu introduced ULVAC’s LED chip manufacturing process and solutions and share related production data.

Taiyo Nippon Sanso EMC: GaN on Sapphire & Si Substrate to Improve LED Productivity Using Innovative MOCVD Machinery
Dr. Koh Matsumoto, President of Taiyo Nippon Sanso EMC, Japan’s largest industrial gas supplier and equipment manufacturer, will discuss how to use innovative MOVPE equipment to increase LED capacity through the use of GaN layers. Dr. Matsumoto is an expert on the ETL photosensitivity process, devoted to the design and production of MOCVD machinery and the development of CS, reactors, etc. He believes that MOCVD capacity doubles every four years. Established in 1910, Taiyo Nippon Sanso EMC is Japan’s largest industrial gas supplier and equipment manufacturer and ranked as one of the top five global industrial gas providers.

Panel Discussion：Facing a Huge Demand Surge in the Near Future, How Can the LED Industry Strike a Balance between Supply and Demand?
The panel discussion was moderated by Dr. Carson Hsieh, Vice President of R&D at Epistar Lab, featuring panelists Dr. Christian Geng, Vice President of Aixtron AG Greater China, Dr. Koukou Suu and ULVAC Institute of Semiconductor & Electronics Technologies General Manager.