On April 2nd, the U.S. officially implemented reciprocal tariffs, though not extended to the automotive industry in general. According to TrendForce’s latest research, the US has applied a 25% surcharge to imported passenger cars and light trucks as planned. A similar 25% tariff on auto parts is set to take effect by May 3rd.

Vehicles and components that comply with USMCA will only be taxed on the portion not classified as “U.S. content” for 25%. The specifics of how this will be reviewed and enforced are pending formal procedures from the U.S. Department of Commerce and Customs. Overall, whether for vehicles or parts, the presence of U.S. content is at the heart of this tariff dispute.

TrendForce notes that automakers with significant revenue exposure in the U.S. market will bear the brunt of this policy. While the exact impact varies by manufacturer and must be assessed from multiple perspectives, an initial gauge can be made based on local assembly ratios.

Among all brands selling in the U.S., only Tesla manufactures 100% of its vehicles domestically. Ford follows with about 76% of its vehicles assembled in the U.S., while Honda and Stellantis each hover around 60%, and Subaru, GM, and Toyota each average about 55%. On the lower end, Hyundai-Kia, Volkswagen, Mazda, and Volvo Cars all have domestic production shares below 40%, making them more vulnerable to tariff pressures.

Low North American assembly ratios pose greater challenges
The USMCA imposes specific regional value content (RVC) on auto parts, influencing where automakers locate their final assembly lines. Vehicles assembled in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada are the most likely to meet USMCA compliance. Given that qualifying vehicles will only be taxed on non-U.S. content, the origin of vehicles imported into the U.S. becomes a key indicator of the likely tariff impact.

TrendForce notes that both Ford and Honda benefit from high U.S. assembly rates and primarily import from Mexico and Canada. Their near-term focus will be further increasing U.S.-based production and maximizing U.S.-origin content in their supply chains.

Subaru, GM, and Toyota each import around 45% of their U.S. market vehicles, but the sourcing varies widely: GM primarily imports from Mexico, Toyota imports about as much from Mexico and Canada combined as from Japan, while Subaru imports exclusively from Japan—making it particularly exposed to tariffs.

Hyundai-Kia, Mazda, and Volvo Cars are all automakers with low U.S. assembly rates, mainly relying on overseas factories in South Korea, Japan, and Sweden, respectively, with minimal production in Mexico or Canada—exacerbating their exposure to tariffs. Hyundai-Kia, in particular, exports as much as 57% of its U.S. market vehicles from South Korea, which has prompted the company to ramp up investment in its U.S. operations. Accelerating the shift to domestic production is key to mitigating the tariff’s impact.

In the short term, automakers are expected to boost U.S. factory output—especially for models already manufactured in the U.S. and abroad—while also working to increase the U.S. content in their vehicles.

TrendForce forecasts that tariff-related uncertainty in the U.S. auto market will persist through 2026-2027. Even with the tariffs now in effect, key implementation details remain unresolved, and negotiations are ongoing. Given the complexity of the rules, manufacturers will need time to evaluate the impact on each model and develop corresponding strategies. Additionally, many vehicle and part suppliers have already rushed to ship inventory into the U.S. in recent months—aiming to reduce exposure to tariffs and delay any immediate price increases.