The second day of LEDforum 2009 mainly highlights the exhaustive analysis of LED TV, automotive LED, and the global LED market reports, and probes into China’s market in depth. Dr Jun Ruan, Vice Secretary-General of China Solid State Lighting Alliance, said that the cross-Strait can develop standards mutually in the future, constructing a demonstration area of the semiconductor lighting project together.
Today, Dr Jun presents China's solid state lighting market and proposes cross-strait industrial cooperation. He noted that China's LED industry is expected to reach RMB 200 billion in 2012 and RMB 500 billion by 2015, not to mention over one million new job opportunities.
In the global market, LEDinside Research Director Roger Chu indicated that notebooks and LED TVs stimulate LED market growth this year. However, due to the economic downturn, sales of cell phones and LED TV offset the LED sales growth.
In the future prospect, it is estimated that LED market will grow significantly from 2010 to 2013, and the upstream chip makers’ CAPEX will also increase substantially. Tight supply of LED chips is expected to ease in the third quarter 2010. From the LED makers’ perspectives, after Korean LED makers’ in-house production capacity ramp up, market giants’ territories will continue to expand; hence, vendors without patents, cost-competitiveness or technological edge will face a considerable challenge. Moreover, as more and more companies invest in the field, product quality is the biggest concern; therefore, the establishment of lighting standards will lead to a re-organization in the industry.
On the second day of the LEDforum 2009, Huang Kouhsin, president of High Power Opto LTD (HPO), with his years of experience in LED industry since the establishment of United Epitaxy Company, shared his depth of insight with the attendees.
He points out that LED, which is made of compound semiconductor, has kept developing for the past years with the advancing of epitaxy and MOCVD technologies, and the improvement in luminous efficacy is the most important breakthrough among others, with the technology already evolving from Bragg Reflector, Metal Reflector, Transparent Subtract to photonic crystal.
The luminance of future LED lighting application products will surpass 80 lumen/W, he said, with the light decline between 3%-5% in two years and failure rate below 10ppm, and the price and other issues like safety and CRI of LED lighting products will all be more satisfying to consumers. By then, the LED lighting market is expected to see significant growth and the industry will thrive.
As for the development of LED-Backlit LCD TV (LED TV), Alpha Wu, Chairman of Amtran, states that after Samsung, the forerunner of LED TV, launched its first LED TV in the first half of this year, numerous companies joined the production in second half of the year; this may affect the high-margin. Shipments in 2010 are estimated to grow up to 344%, while a 10% drop in gross margin is expected.
In the LED backlight, Witsview Research Manager Eric Chiu, said the penetration of LED-backlit notebooks is estimated to reach 80% in 2010. As for LED monitors, the price is the key, because once the price falls to acceptable level in the market, LED backlit LCD display market will witness a robust growth. In TV products, design optimization and technology upgrading are crucial, since the price of an LED backlight module currently costs 2 to 4 times that of the same sized CCFL module. In order to achieve a higher penetration rate of LED backlighting, margin erosion of LED makers and related component makers is inevitable.
Dr. J. C. Hsieh, VisEra Vice President of R & D and Quality Assurance Group, illustrates that the next generation of lighting will face more challenges. First of all is the capability of technical manufacturing process, including rapid production capability and reduction in costs. At the same time, the thermal management should be strengthened, while designs need to meet with different requirements.
Marcus Wong, OSRAM Senior Marketing Manager of Visible LED, Asia Pacific, presents "Automotive LED Lighting Application: Opportunities & Challenges.” He notes that the field of automotive LED is affected by electric vehicles, energy-saving and low CO2 emissions, creating robust growth momentum. He expects that apart from interior LED light, the daytime-running lights and the front headlights of an automobile are the next growth opportunities, particularly when countries in the European Union already have relevant laws and regulations in using daytime-running lights.
Dr. Christian Geng, Vice President Greater China General Manager AIXTRON Taiwan, discusses "Satisfying the LED industry’s requirements on MOCVD equipment." He believes the increasing importance of producing LED chips with high-uniformity, due to increasing demand of LED backlight sources and LED lighting for panels. He notes that the use of 4-inch and 6-inch wafer MOCVD machines will continue to grow. He took the output efficiency of the 4-inch and 6-inch machines as an example, each able to produce 2.7 times and 4.5 times the output of LED chips from a 2-inch machine. The company, together with Semileds, also has successfully created a 6-inch sapphire wafer.
The topic which Dr. L. C. Yang, Chairman of Macroblock, shares is "Trend of LED Display". He thinks the LED display driver IC will be on the same PCB board in the near future and will import more power-saving technology, so that power consumption on the LED screen will become more efficient and that the color correction and gray-scale capability of a product will be enhanced. In addition, he said that RGB clusters, architectural lighting, and LED screen rental market trends will be the focus, while LED Driver IC market will continue to grow.
James Chu, Director of ITRI Opto-Electronics and System Application Division, presents "The Creative Technologies Development of magnetic-field enhances LED", stressing that the 200ml/W LED component technologies will bring tremendous business opportunities in LED lighting. At the same time, WB and Schottky-type AC LED deign can greatly enhance the luminous efficiency of AC LED, accelerating the construction of AC LED industrial chain and the AC LED products. Additionally, the ITRI’s M-LED increased the electric current uniformity and IQE, in order to use the change of LED magnetoresistive effect and binding energy, created by the external magnetic field. This is completely different from the current LED technologies, opening up another door for LED technology.